Finance

SARIMAX Model Analysis of Apple Stock with Exogenous Variables

In the previous articles we saw the limitations of the ARIMA and SARIMA. Therefore, in this article we are going to implement a SARIMAX model the can include exogenous variables Introduction to Exogenous Variables in Time Series Models Exogenous variables, also known as external regressors, are independent variables that are not part of the main time series but can influence it. In the context of stock price prediction, exogenous variables might include:

Saturday, July 6, 2024 | 7 minutes Read

Time Series Analysis and SARIMA Model for Stock Price Prediction

Introduction The Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model is an extension of the ARIMA model (discussed in the previous article) that incorporates seasonality. This makes it particularly useful for analyzing financial time series data, which often exhibits both trend and seasonal patterns. In this article, we’ll apply the SARIMA model to Apple (AAPL) stock data, perform signal decomposition, and provide a detailed mathematical explanation of the model. 1. Data Preparation and Exploration First, let’s obtain the Apple stock data and prepare it for analysis:

Thursday, July 4, 2024 | 6 minutes Read

Time Series Analysis and ARIMA Models for Stock Price Prediction

1. Introduction Time series analysis is a fundamental technique in quantitative finance, particularly for understanding and predicting stock price movements. Among the various time series models, ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) models have gained popularity due to their flexibility and effectiveness in capturing complex patterns in financial data. This article will explore the application of time series analysis and ARIMA models to stock price prediction. We’ll cover the theoretical foundations, practical implementation in Python, and critical considerations for using these models in real-world financial scenarios.

Friday, June 28, 2024 | 9 minutes Read

Monte Carlo Simulation for Option Pricing

1. Introduction In the dynamic world of finance, options play a crucial role in risk management, speculation, and portfolio optimization. An option is a contract that gives the holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy (call option) or sell (put option) an underlying asset at a predetermined price (strike price) within a specific time frame. The challenge lies in accurately pricing these financial instruments, given the uncertainties in market movements.

Sunday, June 23, 2024 | 6 minutes Read

MSFT Stock Prediction using LSTM or GRU

Introduction In this article, we will explore time series data extracted from the stock market, focusing on prominent technology companies such as Apple, Amazon, Google, and Microsoft. Our objective is to equip data analysts and scientists with the essential skills to effectively manipulate and interpret stock market data. To achieve this, we will utilize the yfinance library to fetch stock information and leverage visualization tools such as Seaborn and Matplotlib to illustrate various facets of the data.

Sunday, June 16, 2024 | 6 minutes Read